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Basis & Accuracy of the Almanac & Earth Changes Predictions
How Accurate Are The Earthquake Predictions? The predictions of dangerous earthquake periods are highly approximate. Trends and tendencies and peaks and valleys in seismic activity, at rates well above chance, can be predicted for the globe as a whole and for some regions. But keep in mind that to date it is virtually impossible to predict a specific earthquake in a specific location at a specific time and date. Several approaches are being attempted by various researchers and groups around the world, but so far no method has developed a "track record". It IS possible, however, to predict "WINDOWS" of increased or decreased quake activity by using orbital mechanics. These orbital WINDOWS of increased and decreased quake activity are easily observed in the historical graph trendlines which are displayed in the Earthquake Gallery. The windows were originally noticed by James Berkland and he has developed considerable knowledge about how the windows work. He calls them "syzygy windows", which refer to certain moments in the orbital relationships of the Earth, Moon, and Sun when they "line up" in certain ways.. This is the approximate method used by the EC Almanac, though typically the concept here has been somewhat expanded to refer to any moment of peak increase or decrease in the gravity vectors which are are work in the Earth's crust. Using this approach, the "window" can only be resolved down to plus or minus a few days, to something like a week.. The use of orbital mechanics provides a highly precise mechanism which can be predicted easily. But orbits are only half the story of earthquakes. How the surface of the Earth, which is very complex, responds to the changing gravity vectors is a story which cannot be easily told because science has not modeled in detail how it works at this time. At best we have only a few basic rudimentary, general ideas related to tidal forces in the Earth's crust. We are lacking specific knowledge about local areas. Thus we do not have enough of a total systems grasp of the Earth to be highly accurate in predicting exact levels and locations of seismic activity. Accordingly, specific seismic activity cannot be perfectly predicted in specific timeframes nor can the occurrence of a specific quake in a particular location be predicted by using the orbital mechanics. The Syzygy Windows concept, especially when incorporated into Vortex Tectonics, will correctly point more often than not to *approximately* when to the largest quakes will occur, within the time frame of a week. By studying these windows more intently, eventually, we will be able to catch on to the dance of the Earth Moon and Sun, correlate the dance with other signals, and then be able to correctly predict in which quadrant of the Earth the big ones will occur and during what lunation. Now THAT will be something! This approach can also be augmented with Earth "signals". One signal which can be used, and is in fact used, is the effect earthquakes have on living things and people. Dogs, cats, birds, worms, and humans all show a sensitivity to quakes BEFORE they happen. This is not speculation, this is well established fact which is used by scientists in some portions of the world. To learn more about this, check in with Jim Berkland’s wonderful website and meet some of the people who are studying these things, or even some of the people who have well developed personal remote sensitivity to earthquakes in the making. A remarkable Earth Sensitive is Pam Wiseman. Other signals are being developed and tested, including such things as radio waves, ELF, UHF, X-ray emissions, Neutron emissions from fault lines, motion detectors, stress detectors, and electrical conductivity. Berkland’s site has links to some of these as well. Eventually, by knowing the orbital-tectonic "windows" and seeing the "signal buildups" directly on various fault lines, earthquake prediction may become for some areas at least as reliable as weather reports. This will always involve surprises, however, because many fault lines are buried, or have been inactive for so long scientists have not yet discovered them. See the Earthquake Gallery for more details. EDITOR NOTE: Expand discussion to incorporate the seven year window and the trends How Accurate Are The Sunspot Windows? The timing for major increases in sunspots and ion storms are easy to predict and are reasonably accurate in time though magnitude of the Solar Activity is sometimes difficult to accurately predict. The times of increase are defined as Sunspot Windows, which can be directly calculated from the orbital mechanics of the Solar System. This orbital time line is highly precise, and the sunspot peaks usually come about a week before the alignment but sometimes up to ten days before or as late as three days after the alignment. This makes at most a two week "window", but generally the window is within less than a week of the alignment. Occasionally an unusual flare, prominence, or explosion on the sun will throw the effects off by a few days, but usually not very often. Occasionally as well various complex combinations of planetary alignments also will broaden the period of time. Due to timing differences in software, actual orbits, UTC, and local time, there may be a variation of a day or so in your location from this Earth Changes Calendar and from actual astronomically predicted and recorded dates for these alignments. These differences will not have much meaning for most people. For scientifically critical timing issues, consult a scientific ephemeris for the exact timing of alignments. The exact output of the Sun is always somewhat variable, especially when the planets tend to group up into the same quadrant of the solar system and the alignment dates are close to each other. This adds considerable complexity and variation in the size of the sunspot peak counts, the strength and duration of the ionic storms, and so on. In general, the magnitude of the peaks of activity are directly connected to the 11 year Solar Activity Cycle. When the cycle is at PEAK or MAX levels of activity, the planetary alignments can produce sudden peaks of over 100 sunspots for a day or two. During the Solar MIN period, planetary alignments produce at most approximately 11 to 30 sunspots. So, even in the midst of great variability and chaos in the Sun, there is a definite pattern of relationships from which Solar output can be usually predicted with reasonable accuracy within certain ranges. So the size of the impact of any alignment on the Sunspot count and the ionic energy emitted from the Sun cannot be exactly known, only its approximate potential. Also the duration can vary significantly, some sunspot peaks stay high for a few days, some spike suddenly in one or two days and then fall off radically the next day. Generally, all we know for certain is that there will be an increase when planets align, but this increase and its duration varies with the sunspot cycle, the planets which are aligned, and the orbital relationship of the other planets. Some researchers are developing the arts of using statistical and geometric analysis of all of the planets combined to predict the output of the Sun and subsequent creation of large storms and weather phenomena on the Earth. This work will reach real success when it is able to use supercomputers to mirror the solar system, solar behaviors, and the daily weather on Earth into each other to define in hard numbers the chains of cause and effect. Eventually this type of analysis may be added to the Earth Changes Calendar to predict sunspot peaks much more accurately in both magnitude and duration, as well as their effects on individual storm fronts. For the time being, however, we will have to make do with only a general Sunspot Windows defined through elementary software such as Home Planet and the U.S. Naval Observatory's Ephemeris. How Accurate Are The Weather, Drought, & Flood Predictions? The basic timing for these predictions is set by the planetary alignments and Solar Activity which flows out of them. These are reasonably accurate a great portion of the time, as discussed above, but not always and this can produce definite surprises in Earth's weather patterns, even including the ferocity of hurricanes and torpedoes. The response time and magnitude of the response on the Earth can vary significantly, which is due mainly to the lag times in the arrival of ionic waves into the Earth’s atmosphere, the steepness of the arriving wave, the size of the energy front and the dispersal of the energy among the planets, and the conditions which are already in the Earth’s atmosphere. All these variables prevent an exact science of hour by hour prediction, unless perhaps you have a building of supercomputers working for you. Problem is, the weather people are avoiding the Sun circa 2008....curious that....so the data is not fed into the supercomputers. This leaves it us to develop our "sloppycast" of the weather. These sloppycasts we have been using for enough years to know that we can base a global "sloppycast" purely on planetary alignments within the context of timing in the 11 year Solar Activity Cycle and the approximate condition of the ocean surfaces in the Pacific. These sloppycasts give us definite windows of storms, clear times, periods of chaotic weather, times of extremes, etc. We can even use the combination of the Sun, Planets, Jet Stream, and Ocean Surface temperatures to predict what the entire season will be like "approximately", whether hurricanes will be good or bad, etc. We predicted quite accurately, for instance, that Katrina would be big and mean and slam New Orleans badly. We also out-predicted the U.S. Weather Bureau for 2007. They predicted an above normal hurricane season. We predicted at the beginning of the season that, because of the Solar MIN and the mild La Nina, the hurricane season would likely be a dud. With the great variation in the planets and Sun, the sloppycast predictions can only roughly approximate the magnitude and duration of the tendency for increased storm activity on the Earth as a whole. At best, he predictions point to periods of time of heightened energy and chaos in the Earth’s atmosphere which may vary by a few days, sometimes one to two weeks in occurrence and length. The depth and impact of the storm fronts which this heightened energy creates will vary considerably with the season, with the latitude of your location, on which continent you are standing, and the direction from which your marine air is flowing to create your typical weather regime. For instance, Western, Eastern, Northern, and Southern air flows all create distinctly different prevailing weather patterns. The influx of ionic energy will effect each of these patterns differently. It is nye on impossible for one consciousness to grok all this. It could take a supercomputer and a group of experts for each area to be able define the effects for each specific area! Accordingly, these predictions in the Earth Changes Bulletins and Almanac are kept very simple for ease of application. They are written from the perspective of a person standing in Hopi Land in Northern Arizona surveying the dynamic flux arising off the Northern and Equatorial Pacific They are never valid for the Southern Hemisphere, which is another kettle of ocean water all together. They lose their value the further East you travel from Arizona but since North American weather is GREATLY determined by Pacific Marine Air Movement, the sloppycasts even have value at least part of the time all the way to Europe. At most, these predictions define the approximate periods of time when ionic energy from the Sun is most likely to energize the weather patterns. Since the Solar Activity predictions impact the entire Earth, these can be applied anywhere by other observers who understand how the atmospheric flux works through their region. Keep in mind that the influx of energy will make one area dry by transporting wet air and clouds away from it, while the influx of energy will make another area cool, or even cold, and unusually wet, perhaps even with flooding. So one area's clear day could be another area's horrible storm. How Accurate Are Political and Economic Predictions? These of course are intuitive and hence subjective. The energetic framework created by the sunspot cycle is easily understood with some study, but the dynamics at work in human affairs and mental processes are not objectively perceived nor understood in a systematic fashion which provides an easy grasp. It is difficult to find two people who see agree on what is happening or what is likely to happen. Very few humans understand the true motive forces and reactive patterns which are at play in their societies and often they are not very perceptive about the play of these forces within themselves. Working with these human dynamics takes a skilled observer with a large framework of experience and a long grasp of history and the ebb and flow of human affairs. This is not easy to come by and no single human being can claim with a straight face to have it all understood. The predictions made in this department are made by a 66 year old student of human history, philosophy, spirituality, and earth sciences. After ten years of university education to the Ph.D. level in American politics and classical political theory, and many years of writing business plans, energy feasibility studies, three books on the work of Edgar Cayce, and others, and the discovery of proofs for several revolutionary postulations for the new Earth Sciences paradigm of Vortex Tectonics, Mandeville has developed some credentials for offering a qualified opinion with some breadth. During the year 2002, the author offered through the "Earth Changes Bulletin Weekly Updates" a number of predictions and speculations about the sunspots, the duration and impacts of the droughts, politics, international affairs, economics, agriculture, and the stock market. Typically Mandeville outlined the basic patterns six months in advance. VERY NEARLY ALL OF THESE PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE SUNSPOT INDUCED WEATHER PATTERNS AND THE TRENDS IN HUMAN AFFAIRS CAME TRUE. Mandeville was wrong about El Nino. He predicted no El Nino. A weak El Nino did in fact appear. Mandeville tried to develop a better way to see and predict earthquake and volcano patterns but the logistical problem caused him to give up. He came to his own zen realization of why supercomputers fed by teams of people sometimes really are necessary The Sunspots numbers invariably shot up in the manner predicted by Mandeville, and the extreme weather patterns almost always appeared on schedule even though the patterns in each period often varied. Mandeville also predicted accurately, as of May 2002, that there was little likelihood of a break in the drought patterns through to the end of 2002. He predicted that some relief might appear after November 2002 with a diminution in the high numbers of sunspots. He also predicted, in May 2002, that the drought cycle might end in November or December 2002, but that it could easily last until late summer of 2003. If so, Mandeville predicted that agriculture in major portions of the world might not find relief from the drought until as late as the fall of 2003. Based on this assessment, Mandeville predicted, in the "Oak Tree Memorandum" (which was named because the Oak Trees of central Arizona had lost all of their leaves from the effects of the drought), that the agricultural and rural economies would be severely damaged in the U.S. and many other drought regions of the world. He also predicted that up to 10 million acres of major forest and brush areas in the Western U.S. would suffer from extremely large fires. To add to this dire list, Mandeville predicted the widespread slaughter of livestock, the potential threat of food shortages, increased prices for all basic agricultural commodities, and higher consumer food prices. Within nearly three months, more than 8 million acres burned in the Western U.S., including 500,000 acres of the world’s finest Ponderosa Pine strands in central Arizona. While the fires ranged and farmers could find no respite from the drought, the ranchers began one of the largest livestock culls in history and by the end of the year, all basic grain and food prices in the U.S. had gone up despite a severe recession. Mandeville also advised that the sunspot count would not start to go down until near the beginning of 2003. On Near Year’s Eve, for the first time in 3.5 years, the sunspots went down to 65, showing that the peak of Sunspot Cycle 23 was truly beginning to break, exactly to the T of what he predicted. The War On Terrorism: Mandeville predicted in May and June 2002 that trying to go after Saddam Hussein and the "Axis of Evil" would divert attention from both the Palestinian Conflict and the War on Terrorism, distract completion of nation building in Afghanistan, embroil U.S. foreign policy in confusing complications, polarize the Arab and Muslim countries more and more against the U.S., and increasingly isolate the U.S. throughout the world. He warned that the high sunspot counts would inflame emotions, generate exaggerated reactions, and end up polarizing and fragmenting both U.S. and international reactions, UNLESS governments focused on creating peace in Palestine for the Palestinians and Israeli’s. Unfortunately, Mandeville called it exactly correct. Throughout 2002, 2003, and through to 2007, Mandeville continue to warn that the U.S. government has chosen the path of an untimely, inappropriate, aggressive warlike policy in Iraq which has progressively destroyed its credibility both domestically and internationally.
As things stand in January 2003, the Bush administration has broken its solemn pledge to invoke an international peace conference during the summer of 2002 to solve the Palestinian conflict, has failed to create a stable Afghanistan while allowing warlords to recreate the poppy trade, and has gotten so distracted from hunting real terrorists that the Al Qaeda network continues to resurface in many countries around the world. To end a lousy year of foreign policy failure, defeat and isolation, the U.S. found itself mired in needless, bellicose controversy with North Korea, which alienated the U.S. even more from the international community. The U.S. handled this so incompetently that the Asian nations which neighbor North Korea have taken over all negotiations and the South Koreans have asked the U.S. publicly to back off. This has torn the credibility of the U.S. government into tatters and provoked a huge international and domestic outcry against any U.S. invasion of Iraq. At the militant insistence of the French, Germans, and Russians, a U.N. disarmament inspection team has been placed in Iraq as a buffer against an American invasion, a massive anti-war demonstration campaign is being organized around the world, the chief nations of Europe are sure to cast vetoes in the U.N. security council against any war, Turkey refuses to provide bases for a unilateral U.S. invasion, and the Russians have set sail towards the Persian gulf with three aircraft carrier armadas to stand off the coast of Iraq "as observers" and no doubt as custodians for the massive investments they have made in the Iraqi oil industry. It is difficult to believe how emotionally charged and reactive a sunspot cycle 23 can be. Yet the data is in the last 100 years of sunspot cycles is very clear, most of the major wars start just after the peak in numbers, just after humans have polarized and fragmented themselves into hostile, armed camps. By using this data, and drawing upon an understanding of psycho-spiritual dynamics and the major conflicts of the 20th century, Mandeville projected the last six months of 2002 to a T.
Background Information & Knowledge/Data Sources:
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